Krishna Baidya’s Random Musings

Global IP Traffic to Increase Fivefold by 2013

Posted on: June 11, 2009

Growth Driven by High-Speed Broadband, Video, mobility and Digital Multitasking

white_paper_c11-481360-1A new research on Internet traffic, released by Cisco, forecasts that IP traffic will increase fivefold by 2013 and that most of that will be driven by video, which will account for 90 percent of all Internet traffic by that time. This forecast was part of Cisco’s Visual Networking Study, an ongoing initiative to track and forecast the impact of visual networking applications.

Key findings from the report:

  • Global IP traffic is expected to increase fivefold from 2008 to 2013, approaching 56 exabytes per month in 2013, up from approximately 9 exabytes per month in 2008. The company last year said there’d be 522 exabytes per year in 2012. Cisco says the economic downturn has only “slightly tempered traffic growth.”
  • IP traffic in North America will reach 13 exabytes per month by 2013, slightly ahead of Western Europe, which will reach 12.5 exabytes per month, and behind Asia Pacific (APAC), where IP traffic will reach 21 exabytes per month.
  • Internet video now accounts for one third of all consumer Internet traffic not including P2P, says Cisco. By 2013 it will make up 60 percent of all Internet traffic.
  • By the end of 2013, the Internet will be carrying the equivalent of 10 billion DVDs each month.
  • All forms of video (TV, video on demand, Internet, and P2P) will account for over 91 percent of global consumer traffic by 2013.
  • Peer-to-peer (P2P) traffic is still growing in volume, but declining as a percentage of overall IP traffic.
  • Mobile data traffic will roughly double each year from 2008 to 2013, increasing 66 times between 2008 and 2013. Almost 64 percent of the world’s mobile data traffic will be video in 2013.
  • By 2013, active digital multitasking, such as listening to online music while working online or web browsing/instant messaging while talking on the phone, will add six “network hours” to each day.
  • By 2013, passive networking, such as DVR recording while watching other network programming, online storage backups conducted in the background of user experiences, or ambient video from such devices as a security or nanny-cam, will add another six “network hours” to each day. Today, there are 36 hours in a “network day.” There will be approximately 48 hours in a network day by 2013.
  • Cisco believes that by 2013 Internet TV will be over 4 percent of consumer Internet traffic.

Rest of the report can be downloaded from this link @ Cisco Website. Highlights of the report can be viewed on YouTube at this link.

I had shared similar thoughts & some figures earlier in an interview with ZDNetAsia. Now, it will be interesting to see how the key stake holders play their part in making this demand a reality. Who is going to be the first one to make the investments to develop the infrastructure? Will the content/ application guys rely carriers to build them or their will be much more hand-holding in the near future to capture this huge opportunity?

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1 Response to "Global IP Traffic to Increase Fivefold by 2013"

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